Fuel Up! Lng

I’ve fielded an odd spike in inquiries of late for possible LNG supply options for Chinese buyers. Before, callers were often thought of as front companies who were testing adherence to contracts. Now, there’s an air of legitimacy about them. I’m not entirely clear what’s behind the rise in calls, but I thought for the fun of it, I’d speculate.   Duration: 8m 30s

The Trans Pacific Partnership, a long negotiated freer trade agreement between 12 nations that have shorelines on the Pacific Ocean, has finally surfaced. What are its implications for participants in the natural gas business? Not a lot, it seems, based on my quick review, but you have to read between the lines, so to speak, and you need a good lawyer at your side. After a bit of background, here’s 3 initial observations about the TPP and the gas industry.   Duration: 8m 10s      

December rolls around and OPEC holds its semi-annual gabfest to argue out its oil market quota. They went into the meeting in a tizzy and came out in tatters. Are you wondering what happens to LNG now that the dessert plates have been cleared away and the limos have departed for the airport? Enjoy.   Duration: 10m 10s

Technology is advancing at a great pace, but which technologies could have an outsized impact on Australia’s LNG sector, particularly the high cost east coast gas projects? We’re soon to be the world’s biggest exporter of LNG, we’re a technologically advanced nation, and we’re facing some pretty tough challenges at the moment – all the right conditions for technology adoption.   Here’s my thoughts on five clever technologies with a place in the future of the industry.   Duration: 7m 33s

Are you watching Canada’s energy pipeline drama? The US President has decided that Canada’s oil sands have no place in the US market, and finally, after 7 long and painful years, concluded it was curtains for the Keystone XL pipeline. Could the same tactics that clobbered Keystone XL work on the US and Canadian LNG trade? Duration: 7m 33s

It’s customary at the dawn of a new year to make predictions you have no idea will come true. And true to the season, at a recent meeting I was asked whether I thought the price of oil would get to $20 a barrel in 2016. What other predictions might I propose for the coming year?   Duration: 9m 33s

Queensland Australia is now a serious #LNG player, with 3 producing projects. This podcast provides a good overview of the sector and its key challenges. The state has 6 LNG trains and more than 24 million tonnes of annual production, all from a pioneering new resource, coal seam gas. If you want the story in a nice tight summary, look no further. Duration: 7m 33s

With all the uncertainty around Australia’s domestic gas markets, you would think that company Boards would be posing some hard questions to itself and to management about the current world and corporate resilience in the face ofunrelenting change. In case they’re not, here’s the new uncertainties in gas and the questions I’d be asking management.   Duration: 7m 33s 

I recently spent two weeks in Japan on a tour of major Japanese oil and gas companies. I was curious how the nation was dealing with these low oil and gas prices, a shrinking population and the need for significant structural changes to the marketplace. Here’s what I found out.. First written in September 2015. Duration: 7m 35s

Where are oil prices headed? We’ve now had over 18 months of low oil prices, so surely by now the causes of the price crash have dissipated and prices are going to rise back to where they were.  Well, think again. In my view, prices are not likely to return to the robust numbers of 2014 anytime soon. The underlying drivers that got us to this place have only partially moderated, and there are new forces on the horizon that will bring more pressure to bear on the market. Written on August 31, 2015, but still spot on. Duration: 7m 35s

There's been a recent spate of analyst reports pointing disapproving fingers at the global LNG sector with stern warnings about impending oversupply, falling demand, lackluster pricing, looming fresh competition. Really? Did such a promising sector drive itself into the ditch already? I object to the alarmism in these reports as short-term thinking and misplaced negativity. The long term is still very solid. Duration: 7m 35s

Is Australia's place in the world changing, now that we're becoming a big-time energy exporter? We've always been a serious force in the coal export world, but gas is different. Perhaps Australia will become more influential given our new status as an export powerhouse and the importance our product plays in our customers' economies. Perhaps as a nation we'll need to think differently about our relationships with other nations.

On November 10, 2015, I gave a speech to the Queensland Petroleum and Exploration Society (QuPEX) on the current state of the oil and gas market. This is a recording of my remarks.

  The world of LNG is having one of its occasional bouts of uncertainty, which was the subject of a presentation I recently gave to the DUG Conference in Brisbane. DUG stands for Developing Unconventional Gas, and is a forum devoted specifically to the challenges of coal seam gas, shale gas, tight gas and other geologic formations that fall into that general category. My role was to set out the macro demand and supply picture for LNG, which is the biggest driver of gas development in Australia. This post is a synopsis of my remarks.   Duration: 10m 24s

    Recently, a company approached me with a perplexing problem. They were encountering increasing international skepticism of the viability of Queensland’s coal seam gas sector, which was impeding their growth ambitions. In some circles, Queensland’s LNG sector is viewed to be in imminent danger of being completely displaced by looming US LNG exports, a situation accerbated by these low oil and gas prices, and low US continental gas prices. Could the three LNG projects find themselves being shut down as soon as the US LNG trade hit the water. Is there a black swan condition just over the horizon?   Duration: 8m 02s    

On October 20, 2015, I presented what I see as the top 10 Human Capital issues facing Australia's LNG sector. The slides are available on slideshare.net and it's best to listen to the podcast and read the slides.   Duration: 19m 28s 

Australia's onshore oil and gas services sector is experiencing its very own recession, thanks to gyrating oil and gas prices. And it's going to last a while, if my calculations are correct. I haven't seen conditions this bad since 2008-09. There, I worked with transport, fracking, drilling and construction companies cope with that disaster. Here's some lessons on survival.   Duration: 7m 47s  

As Australia's new LNG projects move toward start up, low oil prices and increased competition have altered the outlook. Which countries will have the biggest demand for future LNG? I was invited to address the DUG conference in late July 2015 to consider global LNG markets and how Australia is positioned to fill that demand, with a particular focus on how Australia's unconventional resources fit into the picture. Duration: 18m

  Originally published on July 13, 2015, this story explores how the big and sweeping trends in the global oil and gas industry come home to roost in Australia. It's based partially on Deloitte's recently published annual review of the global sector, which is available here for download. The past year has really turned many of the basic assumptions about the industry upside down. But how does Australia fare in this analysis? On the whole, ok but not great.    Duration: 8 m 38 s 

Australia has hedged the security of its energy supply, and now that the country is about to become the world’s largest supplier of LNG, it is time to check in. Australia has fallen well behind in securing its own energy (specifically oil) independence, trusting instead on the resilience of global oil supply chains, and faces potential shortfalls in the fuel it needs to sustain the LNG sector, and the overall Australian economy. Now, its next big export earner, the LNG industry, which is growing as a response to other countries’ energy security issues, is also at risk. Duration: 7m 28s