Short Briefings On Long Term Thinking - Baillie Gifford

A series of “extraordinary” events has made the environment more challenging for growth stocks. But “this level of trepidation can’t go on forever”, says Baillie Gifford partner Stuart Dunbar in this latest episode, suggesting that patient investors will benefit when stability returns and the markets value exceptional companies at a premium again. Stuart Dunbar is a director in Baillie Gifford’s Clients Department and is responsible for helping shape and communicate the firm’s investment philosophy.In this conversation, he considers how a succession of disruptive events – the most recent being the current war in the Middle East – has rattled markets and led investors to focus on companies’ short-term profits rather than their long-term potential.However, this period of flux will not last forever, he argues. And when we re-enter a period of stability, patience should be rewarded as markets recognise exceptional companies’ future earnings potential and price them accordingly. In the meantime, Baillie Gifford’s

From new cancer drugs to batteries and robotics – China’s top-tier growth companies are forging paths of their own rather than following in the west’s footsteps. Investment manager Sophie Earnshaw names companies that have caught her eye and explains why being a long-term stock picker differs in China from elsewhere. Background:Sophie Earnshaw is a decision-maker on our China Equities Strategy and joint manager of the Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust. In this conversation, she tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about a select group of Chinese companies breaking new ground, supported by the state’s efforts to become self-sufficient in more of today’s critical technologies and a leader in some of those of the future. Earnshaw also details how the “phenomenal rate” at which companies are born, scale and die in the country makes stock-picking a challenging task – making the access we have to company leaders, academics and other local expertise core to our mission of finding the best firms to invest in on be

With developments in generative AI progressing at such a furious pace, how can investors cut through the noise to identify the companies that will really matter? Baillie Gifford’s Kyle McEnery shares his approach to meeting the entrepreneurs building the future – including his encounters with AppLovin, Anthropic, NVIDIA, Roblox and Reddit. Background:Kyle McEnery is an investment manager in our Long Term Global Growth Team (LTGG) and previously led Baillie Gifford’s Artificial Intelligence Research Project. In this conversation, he tells host Leo Kelion why AI’s ever-increasing capabilities make this one of the most exciting times to be a growth investor, and how leadership and culture act as signals in the noise to help identify companies with the greatest long-term growth potential. In addition to discussing which of the firms enabling and using today’s language-based ‘frontier’ AI models are leading the pack, he explains how efforts to understand and simulate real-world physics could unlock further progres

From Pony.ai launching a robo-taxi service during a Shanghai storm to E Ink revolutionising the way supermarkets label their shelves – emerging market companies are in many cases leapfrogging western counterparts. In this episode, investment manager Alice Stretch reveals to host Leo Kelion some of the most disruptive companies innovating at speed in Asia and Latin America. Background:Alice Stretch is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s Emerging Markets Equity Team. In this conversation, recorded as part of our annual Disruption Week briefings, she explores some of the growth companies in her portfolios turning constraints to their advantage and reducing friction in their customers’ lives. Companies discussed include: PolicyBazaar – the Indian insurance platform making it easier for people to protect themselves against life’s financial shocks.Nubank – the Brazilian digital lender extending access to banking and credit.Meituan – the food delivery and local services app extending its reach beyond China.Me

AI lab Anthropic, digital bank Revolut, Chinese social network Xiaohongshu and supply chain specialist Zetwerk count among Baillie Gifford’s most recent private growth company investments. These bold pioneers are part of an expanding asset class, representing some of the world’s fastest growing and most disruptive businesses. Investment manager Robert Natzler tells host Leo Kelion how and why we backed them on behalf of our clients. Background: Robert Natzler is an investment manager on our Private Companies Team and deputy manager of The Schiehallion Fund.  In this conversation, recorded as part of our annual Disruption Week briefings, he brings you up to date on his team’s recent activity, bringing our tally of private company investments to more than 160, with a total value of over $10bn. Companies discussed include: Mottu – the motorcycle rental and service provider, serving gig workers and others in Latin America. Revolut – the digital bank that has surpassed HSBC and other traditional lenders in terms o

From using AI to create better weather forecasts to helping people with disabilities get their dream job, Japan’s small companies are a disruptive force.

Inside ownership can give companies an advantage when it comes to long-term growth. That includes having a leader or family with a substantial stake in the business. And it also covers firms with farsighted backers, such as philanthropic foundations, which encourage management to take the long view. From airline Ryanair to hearing aid specialist Demant, investment manager Jenny Davis explores how having skin in the game drives firms to act with persistence. Background:Jenny Davis is a Baillie Gifford partner and an investment manager in our International Alpha Team. She specialises in companies based outside the US that offer ‘quality growth’ – combining the potential for outperformance with durability.In this podcast, she explores how persistent, inside ownership works to the advantage of companies she has backed. Examples include firms with founders who have retained a significant stake, those with long-serving hired leaders rewarded with shares and other long-term incentives, companies with family owners w

From microloans for farmers to free savings accounts for the ‘unbanked’ to customised insurance for gig workers to a cheaper, faster way for migrants to send money to loved ones: a growing range of services is helping many of the world’s least advantaged citizens increase their financial resilience. Previously, banks and other traditional lending institutions overlooked these customers. But as impact director Ed Whitten explains, by backing the companies now involved, you have an opportunity to improve people’s lives and achieve strong growth. Background:Ed Whitten is an impact director in Baillie Gifford’s Positive Change Strategy. Its dual objective is to provide our clients with attractive returns while contributing to a more inclusive, healthy world. Whitten’s role is to ensure that the companies it holds fulfil the second part of that pledge. In this episode, he explores the topic of financial inclusion, explaining why the companies involved need to do more than simply provide access to loans, insurance

Emerging markets are reshaping the global economy, and a convergence of powerful, long-term trends is accelerating this shift. These include surging demand for commodities, exploding middle-class spending power and booming inter-regional trade. Investment specialist Andrew Keiller reveals some of the standout growth companies positioned to capitalise on this transformation and why now might be the perfect time to take advantage. Background:Andrew Keiller is a partner in Baillie Gifford and an investment specialist in our Emerging Markets Clients Team.In this episode, he discusses how some of the fastest-growing developing economies are driving change in the world and the forces that could further hasten that trend. The discussion builds on his recent paper, Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world, which identifies long-term structural shifts tilting the odds in favour of standout companies in Asia, Latin America and eastern Europe. In the podcast, he expands on this by identifying some of the com

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to "turbocharge" Britain's growth strategy in response to new US tariffs. His government is prioritising key sectors poised to drive prosperity, including advanced manufacturing, AI and the creative industries. Baillie Gifford's head of UK equity, Iain McCombie, discusses some of the companies already excelling in these sectors how they can prosper over the long term despite the current uncertainty.

Are European stocks coming back into favour? After years of underperformance, many of the continent’s companies appear undervalued when compared to their historical prices and US counterparts. Investment manager Stephen Paice suggests that a group of growth-focused stocks could be among the biggest winners if sentiment shifts, and he identifies a handful of places they are thriving.

Three technologies – quantum computing, reusable rockets and nuclear fusion – could change the trajectory of human progress. Find out how a trio of private companies is bringing them closer to fruition.

From smarter robots to intelligently designed drugs, Baillie Gifford partner Stuart Dunbar discusses some of the transformations that will define the years ahead.

The US’s transformational upgrade of its drainage, power and road networks is a long-term investment opportunity hiding in plain sight. In this podcast, Michael Taylor reveals some of the outstanding companies involved and makes the case that the markets have yet to fully appreciate the advantages working in their favour. Background: Michael Taylor is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s US Alpha strategy. In this Disruption Week briefing, he explains why years of neglect coupled with the destructive consequences of wild weather and our insatiable appetite for data-processing power have led the US to embark on a massive renewal of its physical infrastructure.  Taylor suggests that many of the companies creating long-term value benefit from supply advantages, which help them defend their commoditised products’ prices. These range from ownership of gravel quarries, which are difficult to get planning permission for, to the use of a gigantic, portable plastic drain-making machine. In addition, Taylor discu

Many of the world’s most exciting, high-growth and disruptive companies are private. Moreover, the entrepreneurs running them are typically keeping them private for longer before trading their shares on public stock exchanges – and in some cases have no plans to do so. Baillie Gifford’s Private Companies Team seeks out exciting businesses and founders in this space to give our clients access to an increasingly important source of long-term growth. Taking a highly selective approach, it has invested more than $9bn across over 140 firms over the past 12 years. In this podcast, Alexander Nicolier explains how it does so and discusses some of our notable holdings. Background: Alexander Nicolier is an investment manager in our Private Companies Team. In this Disruption Week briefing, he reveals the scale of the opportunity and the increasing impact that the sector’s restless founders and their exceptional companies are delivering.From SpaceX to Bending Spoons, Epic Games to ByteDance, one of the distinguishing fea

China is transitioning from a property-led economy to one focused on advanced manufacturing. It already leads the world in electric car production and the batteries that power them. And it’s also a growing force in renewables, robotics and biotech. Investment manager Helen Xiong discusses some of the growth companies involved, why concerns about overcapacity seem overstated and why rising trade barriers have implications for stocks traded inside and outside China. Background:Helen Xiong is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s Global Alpha Team and recently became joint deputy manager of The Monks Investment Trust. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking she discusses why global growth investors can’t ignore China even if they don’t directly own stakes in any of its companies.She describes how the country has made ‘advanced manufacturing’ a strategic priority, laying the foundations for future growth. This has already yielded results, with companies such as the electric vehicle maker Li

Upheaval can create opportunity. Baillie Gifford’s Japan Team seeks out companies that will derive the greatest long-term benefit from transformational forces impacting business and broader society. In this podcast, investment manager Matthew Brett identifies four ‘structural growth’ drivers and the portfolio companies taking advantage of them. Background:Matthew Brett is the investment manager of The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust and our Japanese Fund, as well as co-manager of the Japanese Income Growth Fund. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking he discusses four forces creating long-term growth opportunities: -        Japan’s late embrace of digitalisation-        the rising spending power of its Asian neighbours-        the accelerated adoption of industrial automation-        the unmet health needs of an ageing populationBrett also names some of the Japanese companies driving these changes or otherwise gaining advantage, including ecommerce conglomerate Rakuten, skincare beauty firm Shis

Sometimes, you have to take a step back to leap forward. Over the past couple of years, Meta, Amazon, Block and Shopify are among the growth companies to have made efficiency cuts following the pandemic. Gary Robinson, an investor in Baillie Gifford’s US Equity Team, says that’s made them more agile and resilient – qualities that will let them take advantage of artificial intelligence and other opportunities to drive long-term growth. Background: Gary Robinson is joint manager of the Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, a manager of the American Fund and a partner in our firm. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he explores how four leading internet-focused firms have streamlined their operations and reallocated resources to become more adaptable during a period of rapid change.Robinson draws a parallel with companies that made cutbacks after the global financial crisis to suggest that the markets may have underestimated how much growth can be unlocked by leaders taking a hard look at their

Emerging markets have sometimes promised more than they have delivered, but circumstances may be tipping in growth investors’ favour. Will Sutcliffe, head of our Emerging Markets Team, explains why it’s an opportune time to invest in the asset class. Background: Will Sutcliffe is the head of Baillie Gifford’s Emerging Markets Team and co-manager of our Emerging Markets Leading Companies Fund. In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he brings his 23 years of experience in the field to explain what makes the specialism different from other types of growth investing. He makes the case that finding exceptional growth companies at attractive valuations is only part of the equation. Investors must be mindful of the broader macroeconomic environment, he explains, to avoid getting caught out by currency swings or spiralling debt costs. This leads him to conclude that recent resilience in emerging market economies could point to a favourable outlook for the asset class’s growth stocks. All this only

A new medicine that can help patients lose 15 per cent of their body weight could have far-reaching consequences for healthcare. Wegovy mimics a hormone the gut releases, reducing appetite and slowing digestion to delay hunger’s return. Research is also underway into other potential health benefits. In this podcast, Baillie Gifford investment manager Ross Mathison discusses its maker, the Danish pharmaceuticals manufacturer Novo Nordisk, which became Europe’s most valuable company in 2023. Background:Ross Mathison is an investment manager in our Global Income Growth Team, co-manager of our Global Income Growth Fund and deputy manager of the Scottish American Investment Company (SAINTS). In this episode of Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking, he discusses how medicines that mimic the glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) hormone could help tackle the growing problem of weight gain. Forecasts suggest that by 2035, more than half the world’s population will either be overweight or obese. That’s likely to lead to mor