Bitcoin & Markets

This is a quick episode to address a question I received via Twitter DM from a reader of the weekly newsletter. He was wondering why I was labeling the market cycle timing as a 2-year cycle instead of the commonly understood 4-year cycle.

This is an early cut of the Evergrande podcast episode coming out next week on Fed Watch. I discuss the proper context in which to view Evergrande, and give details on what I see going on over there in China. Full notes: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e233

Full show notes: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e228 I listen to and react to an interview Pompliano did with "the most famous digital artist in the world," Beeple, who recent sold a JPG for $69 million. Then I go through what fungibility is and why it applies to bitcoin. Pomp and Beeple https://youtu.be/rT13eQOf6ho Fungibility of Bitcoin - BTCM Research blog  

I quote heavily from Lyn and the BIS in this episode, drilling down the essense of the problem with the premise of deficits being the basis for foreign reserves of the dollar. Short answer, they aren't. There's very little evidence that deficits matter to foreign reserves at all, or that they play more than a very small role. The single most important source of foreign reserves is the eurodollar market. If we clear our minds of the role of deficits, then what is the argument for the unsustainability of the USD system? Well, it boils down to the end of a gigantic global credit bubble enabled by the Pax Americana. Hope this helps clarify. Stay tuned for the next episode on NFTs and fungibility. It will be a satisfying episode. A Links The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System - Lyn Alden Fraying with my highlights Why Trade Deficits Matter - Lyn Alden BIS Report - Triffin: Dilemma or Myth? BIS Report with my highlights

Website: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e226/ Hopefully this episode helps you understand the arguments people often make and if they hold water next time the invoke the Triffin Dilemma. My interest in the Triffin Dilemma started several months ago. Little did I know then that I was trying to debunk an ahistorical extension of the original Triffin argument. I initially came to this conclusion: The problem with using Triffin in an argument about a dollar collapse is 1) it's ahistorical and 2) there doesn't need to be a capital account deficit in the US and surpluses in other countries for them to acquire dollar reserves. In this episode, I try to provide you with a basic understanding of the original Triffin Dilemma from Robert Triffin in 1958, and of why the modern extensions of this famous prediction are poor facsimiles. I provide tons of useful links below as part of the show notes. Balance of Payments It all comes down to the Balance of Payments for a country which issues the global reserve currency. The

Full show notes with images and links at https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e225 At first glance, the Chinese miracle has survived the virus recession and returned to growth. There is no lack of articles proclaiming the inevitable dominance of the communists, sitting atop the list of largest economies in the world. An idea that a rising CCP will want to stretch its new found legs and exercise influence over international trade and diplomacy, and that will bring them into direct conflict with the declining power, the US. This idea was titled the Thucydides Trap by Graham Allison in 2012. Since then it has been a widely used and debated point. While it makes sense that the West is stuck in a debt trap cycle making them destined to stagnation (unless bitcoin), it does not follow in the least that the CCP will continue to rise. The pattern we have seen in China over the last 20 years, is nearly identical to the pattern we saw in Japan from 1970-1990. In this episode I read the original work by Graham Allison and the

In this episode, I read through a blog post from ECB President Lagarde about central bank digital currencies. I tackle the strengths and weaknesses of her claims and draw conclusions about their plans, in particular the ECB. Website: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e223 The future of money – innovating while retaining trust https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/date/2020/html/ecb.in201130~ce64cb35a3.en.html

In this episode, I react to a Simon Dixon interview where he spells out his thinking on the future of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and bitcoin. I respect Simon but couldn't disagree more with his CBDC prediction. We do however agree on bitcoin. Original Video: https://youtu.be/M7XtpvPUqls Website: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e222

Original video: https://youtu.be/qL2LfVRl3J0?t=315 Full show notes: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e220/ 5:15 - Introducing the problems faced by the USD system I agree there's problems, but not the things he lays out. I believe his arguments show he has not considered monetary convergence and has a relatively mainstream understanding of the current system. 9:50 - CBDC Raoul claims the CBDCs are a way to address the problems he has laid out. Again, I disagree that the problems are what he says, and I also disagree that CBDCs can do what he thinks. The three big problems he lays out: 16:25 - Cash, freedom, and an agreement of nations (Bretton Woods 2.0) 23:15 END

In this episode, I voice my support for Peter Schiff against the baseless allegations currently being leveled at him. Then I dig into a slightly older tweet from earlier this year, where Peter talks about gold and scarcity. I take it piece by piece and discuss all the economic ideas behind why he is wrong. Website: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/membership/

In this episode we walk through a discussion of money supply, Fed policy, and velocity, to find out if inflation is coming to the dollar. This is an important concept for bitcoin because many people believe bitcoin's fate is tied to a weak dollar, which it is not. Website: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e218 Twitter: https://twitter.com/btcmrkts https://twitter.com/ansellindner Links M0: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE M1: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1 M2: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2 GDP: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp  

The beloved bitcoin podcast is back with a reaction and hot takes on a recent interview between Danielle DiMartino Booth and Bitcoin Magazine's show Fed Watch. The show starts with an update on this podcast's current and future direction, then we listen to the recent interview, and finally react to it.

In this episode, I read through the new Europol EC3 Cyber Bits April and May issues where they talk about Wasabi wallet and bitcoin mixing in general. Full show notes at https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e216 My copy:  https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Europol-Wasabi-Wallet-Report.pdf  Original:  https://www.tbstat.com/wp/uploads/2020/06/Europol-Wasabi-Wallet-Report.pdf  Next part is on why you should Delete Coinbase. They are trying to sell your data to the DEA and the IRS. Story:  http://archive.vn/40K7t  Janine thread on Neutrino and now Coinbase's crimes against human rights. Coinbase owns the technology from https://twitter.com/J9Roem/status/1100876184999596054?s=20  

In this episode, I base a discussion about bitcoin and ethereum inflation around a tweet from Ryan Sean Adams, a popular etherean. I touch on the bitcoin halving, the fact that bitcoin's supply is not changing, and how ethereum wants to copy bitcoin and make unwarranted comparisons. Tweet: https://twitter.com/RyanSAdams/status/1259877725550055431?s=20 Full show notes at https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/e215