Fp's The Editor's Roundtable (the E.r.)

After the United States ousted Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro in January and then took out Iran’s senior leadership in the following months, U.S. President Donald Trump set his sights on Cuba, claiming that he would have the “honor of taking” the island. Michael Bustamante, a leading historian of Cuban-American relations, joins FP Live to assess the White House’s strategy and Havana’s options.  Plus, Ravi shares his read on the diverse United States seen by World Cup tourists.  Oliver Stuenkel: Washington’s Cuba Policy Is Self-Sabotage Howard W. French: Trump Is Playing With Fire in Cuba William M. LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh: Is the United States on the Verge of Military Intervention in Cuba? Katrin Hansing: Blackouts, Food Shortages, and Water Scarcity Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

SpaceX’s initial public offering broke records as the largest ever and one that (briefly) made Elon Musk the first trillionaire. But just how much power should one person or one company have in space? Quinn Slobodian, a co-author of Muskism: A Guide for the Perplexed, joins FP Live to argue that Musk’s network of integrated companies—from X to Starlink—amplifies not only his economic power but his worldview.  Quinn Slobodian and Ben Tarnoff: Elon Musk’s Self-Contradictory Military Policy C. Raja Mohan: Elon Musk and the Rise of Space Capitalism Adam Tooze: Elon Musk’s First Principles Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The United States and Iran have struck a memorandum of understanding to end the war that began in February. Will the deal last? And what does it mean for the United States, the Middle East, and the world? Ali Vaez has long been involved in unofficial dialogues with Iran and the United States, and he joins FP Live to analyze the deal. Plus, Ravi shares his read on why the cease-fire deal, despite its flaws, will hold. FP Staff: U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding: Full Text Duncan B. Hollis: Is the MOU a Treaty or Not? And Why Should We Care? Matthew Kroenig: The U.S. Won the War With Iran Paul Musgrave: Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam Will Todman: Everyone Lost the War With Iran Daniel Byman: How the Iran Deal Sets the Stage for More Conflict Nik Kowsar and Alireza Nader: Ordinary Iranians Won’t See a Dime of Trump’s Money Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. public opinion is undergoing a dramatic shift, with more and more Americans calling for less military support to Israel. So, is the “special relationship” between the two countries over? According to an essayist in Foreign Policy’s latest print issue, the partnership has peaked—and the only way to go is down. Why is that, and how did we get here? Joshua Leifer, a columnist for Haaretz and author of that essay, joins FP Live to explore trends in the U.S.-Israeli partnership. Plus, Ravi shares his read on the proposed U.S.-Iran cease-fire deal. Paul Musgrave: Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam Will Todman: Everyone Lost the War With Iran Menahem Merhavy: Iran’s Victory Is More Pyrrhic Than It Looks Joshua Leifer: The End of the U.S.-Israel Alliance FP’s Summer Print Issue: The End of the World as We Know It David E. Rosenberg: Netanyahu’s Reelection Could Hinge on Outcome of Iran War Steven A. Cook: Why the U.S. Should Wind Down Military Aid to Israel Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megap

This week, the largest-ever World Cup will commence. Across the three host countries—Canada, Mexico, and the United States—48 teams will play 104 matches in 16 cities. But it also comes amid a particularly fraught geopolitical backdrop. Not only have the three hosts spent the last year sparring over immigration, trade, and even national sovereignty, but one of them, the United States, is at war with fellow participant Iran. Top soccer expert and Times economics editor Mehreen Khan joins FP Live to explore just how exceptional this World Cup is.  Plus, Ravi shares his read on troubles for China’s solar industry.  Financial Times: Adam Tooze: Wasting China’s solar panel surplus is madness The Economist: China’s world-beating solar industry is in turmoil FP Coverage of the World Cup Bobby Ghosh: Sleeping in Mexico, Playing in America Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What would it take to end the Iran war? What exit strategies are still available to the United States? Robert Malley, a former lead negotiator of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and the Biden administration’s special envoy for Iran, joins FP’s Ravi Agrawal to discuss the current talks to open the Strait of Hormuz.  Plus, Ravi offers his read on why U.S. President Donald Trump is wavering between two extremes on a cease-fire deal. New York Times: Robert Malley and Stephen Wertheim: Of Course Trump Bombed Iran Wall Street Journal: Condoleezza Rice: What the U.S. Has Accomplished in Iran Ali Hashem: The World Keeps Asking Iran the Wrong Question Michael Hirsh: Why the U.S. Is Headed for a Long War With Iran Matthew Kroenig: Iran Does Not Have a Right to Enrich Uranium Sina Azodi: The Myth of Zero Enrichment Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

If the rules-based order is broken, what comes next? And who will lead it? Mark Leonard argues in his new book, Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail, that the coming system will be “un-order,” governed not by China or the United States but by no one at all. Are states responding quickly enough? Leonard, who is the director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, joins FP Live’s Ravi Agrawal to explore how policymakers should adjust. Hal Brands: Three Scenarios for a Post-Trump World Stephen M. Walt: Chinese Hegemony Might Be Happening James Palmer: China Doesn’t Always Win When the U.S. Loses Michael Hirsch: After the Nation-State Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing for his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping to great fanfare but left with little to show for it. What does the Trump-Xi summit reveal about the balance of power between the world’s two biggest economies? Rana Mitter, a top historian of China, joins FP Live to discuss where the world’s most important relationship is headed. Plus, Ravi shares his read on why the Iran war may be Trump’s greatest failure.  Ravi Agrawal: Iran Could Be Trump’s Greatest Failure James Palmer: The Trump-Xi Summit Was Remarkably Banal Fareed Zakaria: Trump’s China Pragmatism Is Welcome Stephen M. Walt: Chinese Hegemony Might Be Happening James Palmer: China Doesn’t Always Win When the U.S. Loses Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

There’s little doubt that the conflict in Iran has hurt much of the world economy. But not Russia. Data suggests that the Kremlin has already made billions of dollars in additional oil revenue since the United States and Israel attacked Iran. But beyond just cash, how much will this change President Vladimir Putin’s broader strategy? And what does this mean for the fate of the war in Ukraine? Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins FP Live to explain how Russia is navigating a moment of particular global flux. Plus, Ravi offers his read on U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing. Christian Caryl: Vladimir Putin Is Much Weaker Than You Think Sean Wiswesser: Don’t Fall for Rumors of Putin’s Weakness Keith Johnson: Russia Is Making Bank on Trump’s Iran War Christian Caryl: How Ukraine Benefited From Trump’s Iran War Alexey Kovalev: Russia’s War Boom Masks an Economic Implosion Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

While the conflict in Iran has dominated headlines in the last two months, accounts of ordinary life in the Islamic Republic are scarce. According to journalist Ali Hashem, who spent six weeks in Tehran and has visited several times in the last decade, life in the capital looks more normal than one might imagine. Shops and restaurants are largely open, and regular people seem to be rallying around the flag in the face of an external threat. And while the internet as we know it is shut down, an intranet of sorts—with access to local versions of Netflix, Uber, and WhatsApp—is allowing people a semblance of regular life. Hashem speaks with host Ravi Agrawal about his reporting from Iran.  Ali Hashem: Iran Is More Unified Than Ever Ali Hashem: The Iran Cease-Fire Has Only Divided the War Ali Hashem: Waiting for the War to End in Tehran Ali Hashem: Iran Is Becoming America’s Ukraine Ali Hashem: Iran Is Built to Withstand the Ayatollah’s Assassination Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoi

It’s time for another ask-me-anything edition of FP Live. This one takes on the war in Iran from many angles: the economic impact, regional balance of power, the longer-term global impact, and much else. Producer Dana Sherne puts audience questions to FP’s editor in chief Ravi Agrawal. Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Losing the War in Iran Stephen M. Walt: The End of America’s Soft Power Amir Handjani: The Real Meaning of the UAE’s OPEC Exit Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer: Why Trump Might Come to Regret the Iran War Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The extension of a fragile cease-fire in the Middle East has left the region with no clear path forward. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, which means the global energy crisis will get worse. But Tehran’s new leaders are suffering too. What is their plan? Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour joins FP Live to discuss the shifting state of the war. Plus, Ravi shares his read on how the war’s economic fallout is worst in Asia. Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War David Ignatius: Both Sides Want a Deal. Both Keep Acting As if They Don’t. Menahem Merhavy: The Man Who Represents Post-Clerical Iran Bobby Ghosh: Tehran Can’t Count on Hormuz Philip H. Gordon and Rebecca Lissner: The Strategic Aftershocks of Trump’s Iran War Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is like a ticking time bomb for the global economy, disrupting the flow of energy and rippling through industries from agriculture to semiconductors. How bad could it get? The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for global growth this year from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent in the best-case scenario and 2 percent in the worst case. What countries will be the most affected, and what can they do to protect themselves? Gita Gopinath, an economics professor at Harvard University who was formerly the first deputy managing director of the IMF, joins FP Live to discuss. IMF’s World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War Keith Johnson: Why Iran Isn’t Blinking Yet Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Iran war has become the most serious foreign-policy challenge for U.S. President Donald Trump in his second term. But does it reveal a larger point about U.S. power? Stephen M. Walt, a professor at Harvard University and Foreign Policy columnist, argues that it does and that the United States is increasingly acting like a rogue state. What damage will this cause, and what can countries do about it? Plus, Ravi offers his read on Hungary’s election and why it matters for the world. Thomas Carothers: Why Viktor Orban’s Fidesz Party Lost Stephen M. Walt: The United States Has Become a Rogue State Foreign Affairs: Stephen M. Walt: The Predatory Hegemon Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Ushering In a More Transactional World Howard W. French: Trump’s Recipe for Accelerated U.S. Decline Pew Research Center: International Views of China Turn Slightly More Positive Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Trump administration’s plans in the Middle East are often criticized by those who say he shouldn’t have attacked Iran. But the White House is also facing flak from those who say that it didn’t go far enough. John Bolton is a longtime proponent of regime change in Iran. He served as national security advisor in the first Trump administration before falling out with the president. Bolton joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a debate. Plus, Ravi gives his read on the tenuous Middle East cease-fire.  Ravi Agrawal: Why Trump Mishandled Iran New York Times: John Bolton: Finish the Job: How Trump Can Still Win in Iran Ali Hashem: The Iran Cease-Fire Has Only Divided the War Raphael S. Cohen: Trump’s Iran War Is a Dilemma, Not a Debacle Eric Brewer: Preventing an Iranian Bomb Is Only Getting Harder Stephen Walt: America’s Pro-War Elites Must Be Held Accountable Rishi Iyengar: Trump’s Pivot to Pakistan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After news of a 14-day cease-fire in the middle east conflict, Ravi shares his initial thoughts and analysis. Plus, the rationale for attacking Iran revolved around security. How did the global narrative become about energy? Iran’s strongest weapon has turned out to be its ability to strangle the Strait of Hormuz, an important trade choke point. What does the return of energy as a weapon mean for the global economy?  Meghan O’Sullivan, author of Windfall: How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America’s Power, explains how countries need to think about their energy security. She is a professor at Harvard University and has previously served as deputy national security advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan in the George W. Bush administration.  Ravi Agrawal: Why Trump Mishandled Iran New York Times: How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran Amir Handjani: The War Will End With a Hormuz Toll Booth Nils Gilman: Electrostates vs. Petrostates Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the

As the U.S.-Israel war against Iran enters a second month of conflict, how is Tehran’s surviving leadership thinking about an endgame? And how will the conflict reshape geopolitics in the region? Ali Vaez has extensive contacts with Iranian lawmakers and sits down with Ravi Agrawal to discuss the regime’s options. Vaez is a project director at the International Crisis Group. Plus, Ravi’s Read on how the White House seems to be winning the battle but losing the war.  Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Losing the War in Iran Robert A. Pape and Ali Vaez: The Iran War Has Escaped Its Authors Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas: What Iran Wants From the War Thomas Juneau: Get Ready for a Weaker but Nastier Iran Menahem Merhavy: Iran’s Civilizational Rhetoric Is Hollow Arash Reisinezhad: Iran’s Biggest Wartime Advantage is Geography Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Crude and gas prices are soaring after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure amid war in the Middle East. How bad could the energy shock get and for how long? FP columnist Jason Bordoff sits down with Ravi Agrawal to discuss. Bordoff previously served in the Obama administration as a senior director for energy and climate change in the National Security Council. He is also the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy Jason Bordoff and Erica Downs: How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance Keith Johnson: Iran Is Putting a ‘Toll Booth’ in the Strait of Hormuz Nils Gilman: Electrostates vs. Petrostates Keith Johnson: Europe and the U.S. Still Haven’t Choked Off Russia’s Energy Riches Maisoon H. Kafafy: Empty Words Don’t Open Straits Learn more

It’s widely accepted that the post-WWII order has changed, but the question remains—what comes next? Political scientist Hal Brands maps out three possible scenarios in a cover essay for Foreign Policy’s latest print issue and joins FP Live to discuss.  Brands is a professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and the author of The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World. Hal Brands: Three Scenarios for a Post-Trump World Emma Ashford: A Better Trans-Atlantic Relationship Is Entirely Possible Sarang Shidore: Can Middle Powers Gel? Suzanne Nossel: What Would an Abundance Foreign Policy Look Like? Nils Gilman: Electrostates vs. Petrostates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s no secret that democracy is in trouble. Studies show that a growing number of countries are less free, and polls suggest ordinary citizens are losing faith in their governments. What can be done to fix this? Hélène Landemore has a radical solution: to get rid of politicians and electoral politics and instead create assemblies of ordinary citizens. She explores this concept in her new book, Politics Without Politicians: The Case for Citizen Rule, and joins FP Live to interrogate the idea.  Hélène Landemore: The Problem With Representative Democracy Nicholas Bequelin: The Age of Defensive Democracy Hélène Landemore: More Power to More People Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices